There should be a Windows installer (probably .exe or .msi) for Arcanist. It could try to find a PHP install (e.g. look where windows.php.net installs to by default), and otherwise install one.
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For now this might be "Details" for Wikimedia, because we still don't have real users relying on Arc for code contributions. We know that many new contributors using Windows have a hard time setting up git-review for Gerrit. We still don't know how this situation compares with Arc.
There has been some Windows-related discussion at T4200: Building OS packages and install scripts.
My two cents: a complete install of PHP from windows.php.net is around 45 Mb, which is barely noticeable. It should be possible to install a known good PHP version privately along with the script and use that one. I would prefer that to getting a system-wide installation of PHP when installing Arcanist. This would also solve the problem with a possible existing install that is too old or broken.
@epriestley and @mattflaschen I have created a windows installer here https://github.com/paladox/Arcanist-installer-for-windows
I'm wondering @epriestley if you would like to take control of it for windows users. It makes it easy to install plus uses a free open source installer that git for windows also use.