Which circuit breaker powers the smoke alarms? None shall ever know, for every breaker was marked "OLD BATHROOM GCFI.docx.v2.REAL.bak.bak~" when the house was purchased.
It would be easier to figure out if I could plug something in, like this tool for figuring out which breaker powers something which I already own (although I've had mixed luck with it). But the connector that's currently wired in is a big molex-ish connector that I can't get alligator clips on.
I purchased this smoke detector connector adapter, intending to cut it up, wire that to a plug and then go Live Wires → Adapter → Plug → Circuit Detector. It arrived and isn't remotely close to fitting, it's like twice as large as the wired connector.
The connector on the live wires seems to be a "First Alert / BRK"-style female connector. They sell a lot of adapters on Amazon that take you from other connectors to "BRK", but I can't find any that take you from "BRK" to anything else.
The practical solution here is probably to stand on a rubber mat and just carefully get the live wire into a Wago connector, but after some consideration I realize that they sell a "DIY" BRK Connector Male Adapter for the steep-but-not-unreasonable price of $14.